Summer 2024 has become Earth’s hottest on record, significantly increasing the likelihood that this year will rank as the warmest in history, according to a report released by the European climate service Copernicus on Friday.
If this seems familiar, it’s because last year set similar records, driven by human-induced climate change and further amplified by a temporary El Niño event. These factors continue to push global temperatures and extreme weather to unprecedented levels, scientists noted.
During the northern hemisphere’s meteorological summer—June, July, and August—the average temperature reached 16.8 degrees Celsius (62.24 degrees Fahrenheit), surpassing the previous record set in 2023 by 0.03 degrees Celsius (0.05 degrees Fahrenheit). Copernicus data dates back to 1940, but records from American, British, and Japanese agencies, which began in the mid-19th century, indicate that the last decade has been the hottest in at least 120,000 years, according to some experts.
Both August 2024 and August 2023 tied as the hottest Augusts globally, with an average temperature of 16.82 degrees Celsius (62.27 degrees Fahrenheit). While July 2024 didn’t surpass the record set in 2023, June 2024 was significantly warmer than June 2023, making this summer the hottest overall, according to Copernicus Director Carlo Buontempo.
“These stark figures highlight the tightening grip of the climate crisis,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research, who was not involved in the study.
The extreme heat also likely pushed the dew point—a measure of humidity—close to or above record levels across much of the globe this summer, Buontempo added.
Initially, Buontempo and other climate scientists were uncertain whether 2024 would surpass last year’s record, particularly because August 2023 had been exceptionally warm. However, with August 2024 matching those temperatures, Buontempo is now “pretty certain” that 2024 will end up as the hottest year on record.
“For 2024 not to be the warmest year ever, we would need to see a dramatic cooling in the remaining months, which seems highly unlikely,” Buontempo said.
While a La Niña event—a temporary cooling of parts of the central Pacific—is forecasted for the last four months of the year, it is not expected to be strong enough to prevent 2024 from breaking the annual temperature record, Buontempo noted.
These statistics are more than just numbers; they reflect weather conditions that are increasingly dangerous for people, climate scientists emphasized.
“This translates into more suffering worldwide, with places like Phoenix feeling like they’re stuck in an oven for longer periods each year,” said Jonathan Overpeck, Dean of the Environment at the University of Michigan and a climate scientist. Phoenix has already experienced over 100 days of temperatures exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 degrees Celsius) this year. “Longer and more severe heat waves lead to harsher droughts in some areas and more intense rain and flooding in others. Climate change is becoming too evident and costly to ignore.”
Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, pointed to a surge in extreme weather events, including heat waves, floods, wildfires, and violent storms.
“Like residents in a war zone who become numb to the constant sound of bombs and gunfire, we are becoming desensitized to what should be blaring alarm bells,” Francis remarked in an email.
While last year’s record-breaking heat was partly due to El Niño, the current warming is primarily driven by long-term human-induced climate change from burning fossil fuels, Buontempo said.
“It’s no surprise that we’re seeing these heatwaves and temperature extremes,” Buontempo concluded. “And we can expect more of the same in the future.”
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