Climate change is a pressing global concern that continues to reshape Earth’s ecosystems, with recent decades witnessing an accelerated pace of change compared to the last century. Since the nineteenth century, global temperatures have risen by 0.9 °C, and projections suggest a potential increase of 3–4 °C over the next century.
As the Earth warms, seasonal patterns are disrupted, leading to notable shifts in rainfall and temperature distributions. The implications of climate change on food production are particularly profound, with significant decreases observed over the last few decades, especially in developing regions like sub-Saharan Africa.
Here, agricultural communities heavily rely on rain-fed farming, making them vulnerable to climate variability. Increased regional temperatures due to climate change can induce heat stress in crops, affecting their growth and yield.
In Nigeria, climate change is predicted to have far-reaching negative impacts on crop production, exacerbating existing food security challenges and socio-economic disparities. Climate models project increased rainfall variability across the country, with rising precipitation in southern Nigeria heightening flood risks. Conversely, droughts are becoming more frequent in the northern regions due to declining precipitation and rising temperatures.
A staggering 80% of crop production in Nigeria depends on rainfall, highlighting the acute vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate fluctuations. Rising temperatures and longer growing seasons are altering water availability, necessitating increased irrigation efforts. Moreover, unpredictable weather patterns, including intense rainfall bursts and storms, pose risks of crop damage, soil erosion, and flooding.
Farmers in Nigeria are already faced with uncertainties in planting seasons, varying rainfall patterns, and the heightened incidence of plant diseases and insect outbreaks linked to climate variability. Small-scale farmers, constituting 80% of the country’s farming population, face significant productivity challenges exacerbated by climate change.
Insights from a Study
A study conducted in Lagos, Nigeria, in 2022 focusing on specific local government areas (Badagry, Ikorodu, and Epe) to analyze climate variables and food crop production. Climate data from 1995 to 2018, including temperature and rainfall, were obtained from various sources, while crop production data for cassava and maize during the same period were collected.
A survey questionnaire was used to gather farmers’ perceptions on climate change and its effects on farming, with respondents selected from farm settlements in the study area through association meetings and door-to-door distribution.
The results of the analysis revealed a dynamic interplay between fluctuating climatic variables and their significant impact on crop yield within Lagos, Nigeria. The final regression models highlighted the critical role of minimum temperature, particularly in maize production, where heat stress can sharply reduce yields by impacting pollination and seed germination. Interestingly, cassava, known for its drought tolerance and adaptive root system, showed resilience even without rainfall as a predictor, highlighting its robustness in harsh environmental conditions.
Beyond the data, farmers’ voices echoed concerns about irregular rainfall affecting planting seasons, prompting increased reliance on irrigation. Erosion, flooding, and pest infestations emerged as tangible threats, diminishing crop quality and quantity—a concerning trend exacerbated by climate change.
Looking ahead, the demographic landscape painted a complex picture of farming’s future. With fewer young individuals entering the agricultural profession and a predominantly male demographic, there’s a pressing need to cultivate opportunities for the next generation, including women, to safeguard institutional knowledge and drive sustainable practices forward. Addressing barriers like access to loans and promoting inclusivity will be key in shaping the future of agriculture in Lagos.
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Bottom Line
Farmers face challenges such as irregular rainfall, heat stress, and increased pest infestations, affecting crop yield and quality. The study underscores the importance of adaptive strategies, particularly in irrigation and resilient crop choices like cassava. Moving forward, addressing barriers to entry for younger generations and promoting inclusivity in agriculture are essential for building resilience and ensuring sustainable food production in the face of climate change.
